PREDIKSI NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH DALAM INTEGRASI EKONOMI REGIONAL ASEAN-CHINA

Abstract

Trade liberalization through the regional economic integration of ASEANChina improve the volume of Indonesian trade with ASEAN and China. A Higher imports than exports has influenced depreciation of the rupiah. Theoretically, the depreciation should be able to improve the export competitiveness. However, the Indonesian trade balanc econtinues to decline. This study examine the performance of rupiah exchange rate when the regional economic integration of ASEAN-China fully implemented. Simulating and forecasting performed either ex-post and ex-ante, by simultaneous equations econometric model that built using annual time series data from 1990 to 2011. The regional economic integration is predicted cause higher rupiah depreciation due to a decreasing in net-exports.