PEMODELAN HARGA MINYAK DUNIA MENGGUNAKAN SMOOTH TRANSITION AUTOREGRESSIVE (STAR)

Abstract

Fluctuation of World oil prices leads to various side effects to government and stock exchange. Because the influence of fluctuations in world oil prices are significant in many ways it has been done much modeling world oil prices. Sumarminingsih and Kusdarwati have modeled world oil prices using Smooth Transition Autoregressive (STAR) model, but this research didn’t consider another factor that may affect world oil prices. The aim of this research is modeling world oil prices using Smooth Transition Autoregressive (STAR) with natural gas prices as exogenous variable.