VOLATILITAS INFLASI DI INDONESIA : FISKAL ATAU MONETER?

Abstract

This research aims to analyse the inflation volatility in Indonesia from both fiscal and monetary sides, and the impact of subpreme mortgage 2007 as an external shock which integrated with fiscal side into inflation volatility in Indonesia. In this research, the proxy of fiscal side is external debt and monetary side is broad money. Using Autoregressive Distributed Lag-Error Correction Model, in the short run, both fiscal dan monetary sides have negative impact to the inflation volatility in Indonesia. In the long run fiscal side had less contribution than monetary side. In this research, subpreme mortgage crisis on 2007 had not impact into inflation volatility in Indonesia, it is showed by stability model using in this research