PERAMALAN VOLATILITAS PASAR DI BURSA EFEK JAKARTA

Authors

  • Adler Haymans Manurung

Keywords:

Volatility, ARCH, GARCH and Forecasting.

Abstract

This paper has objective to explore and forecast volatility of Jakarta Stock Exchange for period 1988 to June 2005. Three methods are used in forecasting volatility that is Historical Volatility, Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH), and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH). It is found that the conditional volatility significantly affected current volatility. GARCH (1,1) can be used to forecast volatility.

Published

2017-03-16