SUBSIDI BBM DAN DAMPAKNYA TERHADAP MAKROEKONOMI INDONESIA: PENDEKATAN UJI KAUSALITAS GRANGER

Abstract

Indonesia becomes vulnerable from energy shock. Rapid oil consumption and falling in oil production lead to sharp increase in oil subsides. This article analyses the impact of raising on international oil price on national budget and macroeconomic indicators such as exchange rate, inflation, interest rate, and stock exchange by adapting granger causality test. Generally speaking, Indonesia still experiences wind fall from raising in oil price and at the same time there is no significant impact of increasing oil price on macroeconomic indicators. However, it is possibel for more tight relationship between oil price and macroeconomic indicator if government gradually removes oil subsidies. Government needs to stabilize economy by implementing fiscal and monetary policies while reducing oil subsides.